By Jim McShane, Export Solutions

Buried in the depths of the Federal Register notices published by DDTC, BIS and OFAC is an often-overlooked section that contains some very interesting predictions. This is the section to fulfill the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requirement that government agencies communicate things like impact statements, time required to complete new forms and other similar data.

Below are some predictions made by both the Departments of State and Commerce relative to President Obama’s Export Control Reform initiative. Got your crystal ball handy? Good. Prepare to gaze into the future of U.S. export controls, post-reform …

The following predictions have been made by the Department of State relative to the full and complete revision of the USML:

  • Between 3,000 and 5,000 of the currently registered persons will not need to maintain registration
  • 35,000 fewer DSP–5 submissions annually
  • 200 fewer DSP–61 submissions annually
  • 800 fewer DSP–73 submissions annually
  • 1,000 fewer agreement submissions annually

The following predictions have been made by the Department of Commerce relative to the full and complete revision of the USML:

  • An increase of 30,000 license applications annually
  • License Exception STA transactions would increase by 20,450 annually

What do you think? Will these estimates actually become reality after all the reforms are made? Your predictions are welcome in the comments section below.

Jim McShane is a Sr. Consultant, Trade Compliance for Export Solutions -- a full-service consulting firm specializing in ITAR and EAR regulations.